FX Market Reverses Previous Days Moves with Little Cause


Rates as of 0500 GMT

Market Recap

Yesterday is what I would call an almost perfect Matthew Market in FX. Ive named it that after the line in Matthew 2016, So the last shall be first, and the first last. You can see it from this graph, which charts the change in the currencies tradeweighted indices from Friday morning to Monday morning on the Yaxis vertical and from Monday morning to this morning on the Xaxis horizontal. If they perfectly reversed the previous days move theyd fall on the dotted line. As you can see, theyre all pretty close.

Somewhat the same in stocks too although most didnt fully recover their Friday losses.

Similarly, yesterday I included a graph of how the price of copper was plunging as Treasury yields came down. Today Ive got a graph showing how most commodity prices rose yesterday.

The thing was, there was hardly any news out yesterday to move the markets. The only thing of note were several Fed speakers. St Louis President Bullard NV, a noted dove, said that with inflation over target and the labor market continuing to improve, the Fed could claim at any time that it had achieved its goal of substantial further progress. He also warned that We have to be ready for the idea that there is upside risk to inflation and for it to go higher. Given his position at the dovish extreme of the FOMC, I thought these comments were significant. Dallas Fed President Kaplan NV, a hawk, said that he was in favor of beginning the tapering process sooner…


Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here