CHF Up, Commodity Currencies Down as Oil Surges


Rates as of 0500 GMT

Market Recap

Once again very quiet day all around, not just in FX. In the stock market, the SP 500 closed up 0.02 while the NASDAQ was up 0.31 very dull.

The exception was oil, where the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate WTI crude gained 2.8 to close over 70 a barrel for the first time since October 2018. The main impetus behind the rise was a comment by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who said that even if the US were to reach a nuclear deal with Iran, hundreds of sanctions would remain in place. That calmed fears that an agreement would free Iran to flood the market with an additional 1.4mn bd.

Yesterdays oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute API showed a somewhat smallerthanexpected drawdown in inventories, plus the second consecutive increase in both gasoline distillate inventories. Still, with US production falling by 200k bd during the latest week, the market took the third consecutive weekly fall in crude inventories positively.

CAD failed to track oil prices higher and instead followed the other commodity currencies lower in a general riskoff mood in the FX market.

CHF was the bestperforming currency as German Bund yields fell, reducing the attractiveness of German bonds relative to Swiss bonds. EURCHF broke below its recent low of 1.0927.

The only interesting market today, aside from oil, is the US Treasury market. Tenyear yields fell 3.7 bps yesterday to 1.526, the lowest level Ive recorded since…


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