India will Likely see DoubleDigit Growth this Quarter

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India is expected to see doubledigit expansion in the three months ending in June but economists warn that the data wont be painting the full picture of the countrys growth trajectory. South Asias largest economy released fourth quarter GDP data Monday that showed an expansion of 1.6 from the same period a year ago, driven mostly by state spending and manufacturing sector growth. Full year GDP is estimated to have contracted 7.3 compared to a 4 growth in the previous year.

Since February, India has been battling a devastating second wave of coronavirus that accelerated in April and peaked in early May. The infection forced most of Indias industrial states to implement localized lockdown measures to slow the spread of the virus. For the AprilJune quarter last year, the economy contracted 23.9 as a monthslong national lockdown hammered the country. Economists argue that while the reported yearonyear figure for the current quarter will likely show a doubledigit growth, the strong number will be due to the low base from last years negative print.

Still, experts agree that the economic impact of the second wave may not be as severe as the one seen last year. India has, thus far, avoided another national lockdown, allowing states to implement localized shutdowns instead. Economists agree that the country is generally on track to revive its growth but at a delayed pace. Data is likely to show that consumption lost momentum this quarter on a sequential basis due to the second…

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