MOSCOW, May 26 Reuters Russias stock market will climb to record highs this year thanks to a recovery in commodity prices and stilllow interest rates globally, although there are also risks of a downside correction, a Reuters poll of 13 market experts forecast.
Russian stocks collapsed in the first quarter of last year under pressure from a drop in the price of oil, Russias major export, and the coronavirus pandemic, but recouped those losses by end2020 and are on track to advance further.
The MOEX roubledenominated index, which hit a record high of 3,713.49 on May 10, was expected to reach 3,819 by the end of this year, up about 4.3 from Mondays close of 3,662.51, according to the May 1025 Reuters poll.
The Russian stock market will lean towards higher levels in the next three months and may see inflows as Russia and the United States are preparing for a bilateral summit in June, said Mikhail Vasilyev from Sovcombank.
Gazprombank said the market may face a summer correction of up to 10, however, due to a slower vaccination against COVID19 in emerging markets compared to that in developed economies.
The global economic recovery, rising oil prices and accommodative monetary policy by major central banks also work in favour of Russian stocks.
The main risk for the Russian stock market is still the threat of harsher sanctions. But new restrictive measures are mostly of a personal and selective nature. Thus the sanction threat for the local market has somewhat eased,…